A “Mug Bet” is a term used to describe a bet that is seen as unfavourable or unwise, often placed by an inexperienced or casual bettor, also known as a “mug.” Mug Bets have a high likelihood of losing in the long-run due lack of value, or insufficient research. In contrast, more experienced bettors aim to find “value bets,” where the odds offered are better than the actual probability of the event occurring.
The vast majority of casual sports bettors can be classified as “Mug Bettors” or “Mugs” for short, as harsh as that sounds.
I wanted to find out how much regular football punters are likely to lose over the course of a season, and whether I could defy the odds by generating a profit from Mug Betting. So I placed an equal ￡5 bet on every Premier League fixture for the remainder of the season. I based all of my selections on one thing: my opinion.
How do you think I performed? Read on to find out…
Article Contents
The Mug Betting Experiment
Inspiration
Every seasoned bettor knows someone, or follows someone on Twitter, who claims to “smash the bookies.” But do these successful gamblers ever quit their jobs and make a living solely from sports betting?
Not in my experience.
Needless to say, I often doubt the success stories I hear and read about within the sports betting community, especially if the approach doesn’t involve using a mathematical model.
Nonetheless, I was intrigued to see if I could succeed by backing one selection in every remaining Premier League fixture for the season, equipped with only one tool: my opinion. I wanted to emulate the average gambler to test whether there’s a skill element — which cannot be quantified — that impacts sports betting performance.
Thus, the “Mug Betting Experiment” was formed. I decided to use the Betfair exchange Match Odds market to ensure I obtained the best available odds at the time of betting. I posted my bet selections before each match day.
What I Hoped To Answer
- How well can I perform by relying solely on my intuition and knowledge of Premier League football?
- Will my understanding of value betting benefit the experiment, or will it be worthless without proper analysis?
- What expectations should mug punters have when betting on multiple fixtures over the course of a season?
- Can I remain unbiased in my selections despite my allegiance to Spurs?
What I Predicted
In my original version of this blog post, I predicted that my Mug Bets would break even. In reality, the outcome could have been much better or much, much worse.
This prediction might sound pessimistic, but I have always believed in the efficiency of the betting markets. I’ve never trusted my ability to beat those markets using guesswork alone.
The Results Went Exactly As Expected
It’s spooky how accurate my prediction for the Mug Bets experiment turned out to be.
After placing all 270 bets, the result was a 0.00% ROI once the 5% Betfair commission was applied. The final profit was a mere +￡4.33.
Think about that for a moment. After 270 mug bets, I was almost exactly even.
the running pnl graph of the Mug bets:
Feel free to check the Week-by-week updates if you find it hard to believe.
Placing 270 bets provided a reasonable insight into my performance. To put it into perspective, it’s like placing 2 bets every weekend for 2.59 years (assuming no summer break).
It’s safe to say I had no edge in my “strategy”.
How Did I Predict The Outcome So Accurately?
Before the experiment, I knew from experience that by using the betting exchange and adhering to a strict fixed stake, I had a good chance of breaking even or losing only a small percentage of the total stake (after commission).
Therefore, it seemed logical that over a sample of 270 mug bets, I wouldn’t lose or gain much profit. I was right, down to two decimal places.
What Do The Results Prove?
The Need For Value
In any type of gambling, there’s an inherent ‘edge’—usually in favour of the bookmaker or casino. A successful sports bettor must find favourable odds to gain an edge and earn a profit over the long term.
Importantly, gaining an edge is not about “picking winners” or relying on good fortune. It’s about systematically identifying value odds so that you eventually come out on top.
Most bettors don’t have any advantage—I certainly didn’t in my experiment. I simply backed what I thought looked like value or what I ‘felt’ was a good bet. The approach wasn’t sophisticated enough.
Ultimately, even a seasoned sports bettor cannot succeed without a proper betting model to support their selections.
To learn more, read my article on Value Betting.
The Superiority of Betting Exchange Odds
Quietly, I am quite proud of the 0.00% ROI I achieved in the Mug Betting Experiment. However, I have the betting exchange to thank for that.
If I had placed all my bets with bookmakers, the result would have been significantly worse.
Bookmakers offer much lower odds than betting exchanges. How much lower depends on the site, markets, size of the odds, and liquidity/demand, among other factors. Generally, you can expect the odds at bookmakers to be 5-15% lower than Betfair for Premier League fixtures.
Considering the best and worst-case scenarios, the results would be:
- 5% lower: -￡35.63 (-2.64% ROI)
- 15% lower: -￡115.57 (-8.56% ROI)
That’s a big difference.
This experiment truly demonstrates how much better off sports bettors are when using betting exchanges.
Challenges Posed By The Experiment
The experiment presented challenges typical bettors encounter regularly.
When Is It Safe To Raise The Stakes?
Looking at the results up to the first 80 bets, one might have perceived a winning trend.
Up until 80 bets in
If I had increased the stakes at that point, as many bettors might do, I would have substantially lost money in the experiment. From that juncture onward, the profit and loss trended mostly downward, except for one significant win when Watford defeated Arsenal at the Emirates.
To address this issue, I recommend continuously monitoring your current return on investment (ROI) and maintaining realistic expectations. Aim for a 5-10% ROI — that’s sufficient. In this case, the sample was far outside my expected range, sitting at +35.37%. Such an ROI is unsustainable over time. It was inevitable that the results would regress to the mean, a prediction I made several times in the week-by-week updates of the Mug Bets.
The lesson here is clear: whether you’re currently winning or losing is less important than where you’ll stand in the long run. Increasing stakes after a short winning streak can be perilous. You can learn more about betting swings from my post on variance.
Why Did My Profit Decline?
One hypothesis is that I started well but lost my edge over time.
Initially, I relied on personal insights to guide my selections. For instance, I believed that Manchester United and West Ham were overhyped by the media during the summer, and I expected Chelsea to rebound from their poor 2015/16 campaign. These perspectives helped me identify pricing inefficiencies early in the season.
However, as the season progressed, I found the odds becoming sharper. As public perception aligned more closely with mine, I lost the ability to find value bets. I needed new perspectives to maintain an edge, which I lacked.
Another possibility is that my early success was largely due to luck, and the outcomes eventually balanced out.
Regardless, the positive start was unsustainable.
Was I Biased Towards Spurs?
Surprisingly, no. In fact, I didn’t back them enough.
Out of the 27 Spurs matches during the Mug Betting Experiment:
- I backed Spurs to win 16 times (correct bets: 11)
- I backed draws 9 times (correct bets: 0)
- I backed their opponents to win 2 times (correct bets: 1)
The critical issue here is that I incorrectly backed the draw too frequently (9 times), and Spurs won all 9 of those matches. If I had shown more bias or faith towards Spurs, I wouldn’t have incurred a significant loss of ￡45 from the draw selections alone.
It’s possible that I overcompensated when it came to betting against Spurs. I was aware of the potential for bias and may have subconsciously avoided backing them too often.
THE RUNNING PNL GRAPH OF THE Spurs RESULTS:
Based on this small sample, it appears that I gradually gained more confidence in Spurs as the season progressed. However, this confidence didn’t pay off because the odds did not reflect sufficient value. This indicates that the market also believed Spurs would win most of their remaining matches and finish high in the standings.
Could I Have Done Better?
Maybe I would have fared better if I hadn’t wagered on every single remaining fixture of the season. Often, I felt constrained having to pick a selection when none of the three outcomes seemed appealing. Allowing myself the option to skip matches would have allowed for much greater selectivity.
However, if I truly aimed to enhance my results and turn a profit in the Premier League betting markets, relying solely on my opinion wouldn’t suffice. That’s for sure.
In essence, while you and I may have more football knowledge than others, profitability in betting demands insight beyond what we individually know about the game.
I hope this experiment provides you with some perspective and helps you to maintain realistic expectations when it comes to casual sports betting.
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