Look no further, as I am here to assist you. In this post, I explain each of the main football bet types.

1×2 / Match Result / FT Result / Match Odds

There’s a lot of different names given to the “1×2” football betting market, and it varies depending on what bookmaker or Betting Exchange you use.

When you place a 1×2 bet, you select one of following three outcomes:

• Home win (“1”)
• The Draw (“X”)
• Away win (“2”)

Note that?in football, unlike some American sports, the home team is always listed first. So if the fixture is “Tottenham v Arsenal”, then Tottenham are playing at home.

You can only win your 1×2 bet by selecting the one correct outcome from the three available. Winning bets are decided after 90 minutes + stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are off the records, unless the market specifically states otherwise.

Double Chance

Double Chance allows you back more than one outcome from the 1×2 market in one hit.

You can choose between the following:

• “1x” — for the Home team and the Draw
• “12” — for the Home team and the Away team
• “x2” — for the Draw and the Away team.

You win your Double Chance bet whenever one of the two outcomes you’ve selected, wins.

Double Chance gives you a greater chance of striking a win — but the payouts are much lower than the standard (riskier) 1×2 bet.

Note that while Double Chance market is essentially two bets merged into one, it doesn’t split your stake equally over the two 1×2 outcomes (like an EW bet in Horse Racing) whcih has two different profit scenarios. Instead it gives you one price that equals out the potential winnings for either winning outcome.

Sometimes the bookmaker offers better value for you to place two bets individually in the 1×2 market than the Double Chance market, and vice versa. But to verify that you’ll need to calculate your stakes and potential winnings. I recommend using a Double Chance Calculator, or following the information provided by Pinnacle Sports in their article on Double Chance Betting.

Correct Score

In the Correct Score football market you bet on what the score will be in a match, from a list of possible outcomes.

The most likely outcome for professional football games tends to be lower scoring results — such as 1-0 or 2-1. However, the likelihood of any score depends on the two teams in question. Their style of play, motivation and how they compare to one another is a key.

The Correct Score market requires great precision and making a correct prediction is challenging. Hence many scorelines — particularly the abnormal/shock results — pay out far more than standard 1×2 market winning bets.

Over/Under X Goals

The Over/Under football betting markets enable punters to bet on there being over or under a particular number of goals in a game, without needing to be specific about the scoreline. The most popular market is “Over/Under 2.5 goals” — but there’s also 1.5, 3.5 and so on.

The reason the Over/Under markets are listed with decimal representations like 2.5 rather than whole goals like 2 is so that all possible scorelines are included. For example, if a “Over/Under 2 Goals” market existed, a 1-1 draw would be disregarded entirely as it has neither over or under 2 goals; it has 2 goals exactly.

Now imagine you place a bet on “Under 2.5 goals” in the match between Everton and Leicester. In this market the scorelines of 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2 are all winning outcomes (as they each have less than 2.5 goals). For any other outcome the bet loses — it’s as simple as that.

Total Goals

In the Total Goals market you predict the range of goals scored in a match. The most common ranges are:

• 0-1 goals
• 2-3 goals
• 4-6 goals
• 7+ goals.

Some bookmakers may tighten their ranges. For example, changing 4-6 goals to 4-5 goals, which makes it less likely to strike a win. Thus the odds would be higher, and payouts bigger, on bets placed within tight ranges.

The most likely range to strike a win depends on the fixture. For example, two highly defensive and evenly matched teams may make for a low scoring game. Therefore the odds would be low for 0-1 goals, and higher for other ranges.

Both Teams to Score

The “Both Teams to Score” football betting market is a very simple. You’re given a “Yes” or “No” selection:

• “Yes” — for both teams to score
• “No” — for all other outcomes (neither, or only one team, to score)

Basically, 1+ goals for both teams will win the bet.

Half-Time Result

This is exactly the same as the 1×2 market except the bet is settled at the end of the first half. As before, you select Home (1), Draw (X), or Away (2). The HT score decides whether your bet wins or loses.

For example, backing the Home team to win at Half Time and then reaching the break with a score of 1-1 means the bet loses.

Note that there’s also a Double Chance HT result, which allows you to pick two of the possible HT outcomes at reduced odds. This market works just the same as it does with the standard FT Double Chance (see “Double Chance” above).

Half Time/Full Time Result

The HT/FT football betting market is a combination of the HT market and regular 1×2 market. To win a HT/FT bet you must correctly predict the outcome (Home, Draw, or Away) at both Half Time and Full Time.

It’s important to note that HT/FT betting markets are not like Double Chance where you are rewarded for selecting either the HT or FT result correctly. With HT/FT you need to correctly select both.

For example, if the match West Ham v Crystal Palace was 1-1 at HT and 2-1 at FT, then to win the bet you need to have selected:

• The Draw (X) at HT and
• Home (1) at FT.

This specific combination is represented as “X/1”. The other (losing) combinations would be: 1/1, 1/X, 1/2, X/X, X/2, 2/1, 2/2 and 2/X.

The Half Time/Full Time combination is tricky to predict, and less likely to produce a winner than splitting the bet down into singles for each half. However, that lower chance of winning is reflected in higher odds and payouts.

You’ll learn more about Combo Bets later on this in article.

Draw No Bet

The Draw No Bet market reduces football fixtures down to two winning outcomes (Home or Away), and refunds any bets placed which end in a Draw (X). This means that there’s much less chance of losing your stake.

However, the trade-off is that the odds you accept on either team will be much lower than if you backed them in the standard 1×2 market (thereby accepting the risk of the Draw).

Goalscorer

Goalscorer football betting markets are intuitive. In this market you bet on individual players to score a goal in a game (but own goals don’t count!).

Strikers tend to be favourites to score. Other players, such as defenders, tend to be long-shots.

There are variations on goalscorer markets:

• “Anytime Scorer” — bet on a certain player to score in the game, no matter when.
• “First Scorer” — bet on a certain player to score the first goal in the game.
• “Last Scorer” — bet on a certain player to score the last goal in the game.
• “To Score 2/3/4…” — bet on a certain player to score at least two/three/four/more times in the match. Scoring more goals than the amount you’ve selected will still win the bet.

It’s worth noting that bookmakers have different terms for settling Goalscorer bets when your chosen player doesn’t feature in the game. For example, due to injury, illness, match bans — or not being selected by the manger. Some Bbokies will refund your stake, others will count it as a loss.

Corners

Corners markets utilise other football bet types.

Here’s some examples of typical Corners markets you’ll find at bookmakers and Exchanges:

• “Under/Over/Exactly X corners” — to bet on there being under/over/equal to a given number of corners in a game (e.g. 10).
• “Between X-Y corners” — to bet on the total number of corners being between a given range (e.g. 5-10)
• “First half corners” / “Second half corners” — to bet on how many corners will happen per a specific half of the game.
• “Most corners” — to bet on which team will get the most corners
• “First team to reach X corners” — to bet on a race between the two teams, where the winner is the first to a total number of team corners (e.g. 5)
• “Time of first corner” — to bet on specific timings relating to corners.

Corners markets can also involve Asian Handicaps, which gives a virtual “head start” to the underdog from the outset.

In addition, Corners markets are popular in football spread betting.

Yellow/Red Cards

Much like corners, you can also bet on how many cards (Yellow or Red) will be shown during a football match.

The most popular betting market for cards is “Number of Cards in Match” — where the bookmaker will set an estimated total for the number of cards and bettors can predict whether the final total will be Over or Under that amount. Typically you might expect the line to be 2.5 cards, although it could be much higher for fiery fixtures (e.g. local derbies).

Bookies provide various other cards markets that are self explanatory. For example:

• Number of cards for each team
• Which team will receive the most bookings
• Whether a red card will be shown in the game…
  • For a particular team…
    • In a particular half (1st or 2nd)
    • At a particular time.

Again, Asian Handicap markets are popularly used in the Cards markets.

Score/Miss Penalty

Bookmakers offer odds on penalties taking place, and being scored. The bets you can place on penalties tend to be in a standard Yes/No format, such as:

• Penalty to be awarded?
• Penalty to be scored?
• Penalty to be missed?
• 1^st Goal to be a scored penalty?

For many of these markets you can also specify the team. For example “Penalty to be scored by Team A?” or “Penalty to be missed by Team B?”.

Bare in mind that penalties will not occur in every game — so many of these markets will offer high odds.

Combo Bets

Combo bets are simply a combination of two (and in some cases more) football bets. Combining different bets increases the risk, and therefore the payout, since you need to correctly predict two parts to win.

Some of the most popular Combo bets include:

• Correct score Half Time-Full Time — predict the score both at half time and full time. This popular example is detailed in its own section earlier in this article.
• Winner & Number of Goals — predict which team will win and how many goals will be scored in a match. Similar bets exist for draws (e.g. “draw & under or over 2.5 goals”).
• Winner & Both Teams to Score — predict the full time result and whether both teams will score or not.
• Total Goals & Both Teams to Score — predict if both teams will manage to score (or not) and how many goals will be scored in total.
• Scorecast — predict which player will score the first goal and what the final score will be at full time. You can also find combinations such as “anytime & final score”, or “first scorer & winner”.

European Handicap

The simplest form of football handicap bet is the European Handicap or EH. In an EH market, the match starts with a predefined goal advantage for one of the teams (e.g. -1/-2/-3 etc). Players can bet on any of the three outcomes of the game, given the goal handicap.

For example, EH -1 for Man United at home against Brighton means the score starts at 0-1 for the visitors. So Brighton have a virtual 1 goal headstart. Here’s every scenario for this bet:

Losing bet scenarios:

• Man United Lose —? the handicap exaggerates their loss by one goal (e.g. 1-3 becomes 1-4).
• The game ends a Draw — the handicap produces an away win (e.g. 1-1 becomes 1-2)
• Man United win by 1 goal —? the handicap produces a draw (e.g. 2-1 becomes 2-2)

Winning bet scenario:

• Man United win by 2 or more goals — the handicap produces a home win (e.g. 2-0 becomes 2-1).

By reducing the superiority of one team, and needing them to score more to win the bet, a bettor’s outlook on the fixture changes. Strong favourites, when handicapped, are forced to prove their superiority — which gives more chance to the weaker opponent. This has the effect of evening out the odds in uneven fixtures, rather than backing the extremes favourite at low odds, or the underdog at high odds in the 1×2 market.

Many value bets arise in Handicap markets as the odds aren’t as efficient as those in the 1×2 market.

Asian Handicap

Asian Handicaps (AH) can be treated an an extension of European Handicaps (EH) — they’re almost the same. The main difference is that Asian Handicaps reduce football games down to only two outcomes (win and lose). If the bet ends in a Handicap draw, then the bettor’s stake is refunded.

For example, an Asian Handicap market could exist for a cup fixture offering odds on two outcomes (no draw):

• Man City (-2)
• Oxford United (+2)

If Man City were to win the game by exactly two goals, betting on either team would produce no winnings, and the bettor would have their stake returned. As a result, Asian Handicaps are often quoted in half-goals, which eliminates the Draw.

There’s also several other football Asian Handicap bet types available. AH Markets are easily the most complex football bets you’ll encounter, and cannot be summarised in one short section. I’ve written a full-length article “Asian Handicap Betting Explained“, which extends this article and provides information on everything you need to know.

The post Popular Football Betting Markets Explained | Soccer Bet Types appeared first on Punter2Pro.

In this article I provide the formulas to calculate the potential winnings using any format of your choice. I also explain how to convert any format to/from the, preferable, Decimal odds format.

1. Decimal Odds

Decimal odds are the default format across Europe — hence the name “European Decimal Odds”. They’re the easiest and most transparent odds to use, and the go-to format for most professional bettors and traders.

Note that profit calculations using decimals odds show the potential return of a bet, with the stake included.

Profit Calculation

Formula: Stake x (Decimal -1)

Examples

• 2.0 = ￡100 profit on a ￡100 stake.
• 5.0 = ￡400 profit on a ￡100 stake.
• 10.0 = ￡900 profit on a ￡100 stake.

Learn more about the decimal odds format.

2. Fractional Odds

In the UK and Ireland bookmakers have always used fractional odds as the default (e.g. 6/4, 1/3, 2/1). They’re simple to use — but do not always make it easy to quantify/compare the value of the prices on offer.

Importantly, unlike decimals odds, calculations made on Fractional odds give the potential profit, without the stake included.

Profit Calculation

Formula: Stake x Fraction

Examples

• 2/1 = ￡200 profit on a ￡100 stake.
• 1/2 = ￡50 profit on a ￡100 stake.
• 1/1 = ￡100 profit on a ￡100 stake (“evens” or “even money”).

Convert to Decimal Odds

Formula: Fraction + 1

Examples

• 3/1 = 3.0 + 1 = 4.0 decimal odds.
• 1/2 = 0.5 + 1 = 1.5 decimal odds.
• 1/1 = 1 + 1 = 2.0 decimal odds.

To convert Decimal odds to fractions: Decimal Odds – 1.0, and then find the nearest whole integers (e.g. 3.75 – 1 = 2.75/1, or 11/4).

Learn more about the fractional odds format.

3. American Odds

American odds are of course very popular at US sportsbooks. They’re often referred to as “Moneyline” odds or “lines”. Importantly, the odds are different for underdogs and favourites — but are both represented in units of $100. Favourites are represented by negative (-) odds, and underdogs by positive (+) odds.

• If the odds are lower than evens (2.0 decimal), then American odds are negative. This shows how much money must be wagered to win $100.
• If the odds are higher than evens (2.0 decimal), then American odds are positive. This shows how much money will be won on a wager of $100.

American odds are barely recognised in the UK and across Europe because the format is not widely available at local sportsbooks. In my opinion, American odds are a lot more difficult to grasp than the Fractional or Decimal formats.

Profit Calculation (Favourites)

Formula: (-100 / Odds) x Stake

Examples

• -200 = (-100/-200) = 1/2. Therefore, $50 profit on $100 staked.
• -400 = (-100/-400) = 1/4. Therefore, $25 profit on $100 staked.
• -500 = (-100/-500) = 1/5. Therefore, $10 profit on $50 staked.

Profit Calculation (Underdogs)

Formula: (Odds / 100) x Stake

Examples

• 200 = (200/100) = 2/1. Therefore $200 profit on $100 staked.
• 300 = (300/100) = 3/1. Therefore?$300 profit on $100 staked.
• 500 = (500/100) = 5/1. Therefore $250 profit on $50 staked.

Convert to Decimal Odds (Favourites)

Formula: (-100 / Odds) + 1

Examples

• -500 = (-100/-500) +1 = 1/5 + 1 = 1.2 decimal odds.
• -400 = (-100/-400) + 1 = 1/4 + 1 = 1.25 decimal odds.
• -100 = (-100/-100) + 1 = 1 + 1 = 2.0 decimal odds.

Convert to Decimal Odds (Underdogs)

Formula: (Odds / 100) + 1

Examples

• 500 = (500/100) +1 = 5 + 1 = 6.0 decimal odds.
• 400 = (400/100) + 1 = 4 + 1 = 5.0 decimal odds.
• 200 = (200/100) + 1 = 3.0 decimal odds.

To convert Decimal odds of 2.00 or greater to American odds: (Decimal Odds – 1) x 100

To convert Decimal odds of less than 2.00 to American odds: (-100) / (Decimal Odds -1)

Learn more about the American odds format.

4. Hong Kong Odds

Hong Kong odds are adopted by many Asian bookmakers. The odds are simple to work out, and are a cross between decimal and fractional odds. Essentially the profit calculation works just the same as fractional odds — except they’re presented in a decimal format.

Profit Calculation

Formula: Stake x Odds

Examples

• 2.0 = ￡200 profit on a ￡100 stake.
• 0.5 = ￡50 profit on a ￡100 stake.
• 3.0 = ￡150 profit on a ￡50 stake.

Convert to Decimal Odds

Formula: Odds + 1

Examples

• 0.4 = 0.4 + 1 = 1.4 decimal odds.
• 5.0 = 5.0 + 1 = 6.0 decimal odds.
• 1.5 = 1.5 + 1 = 6.5 decimal odds.

To convert Decimal odds to Hong Kong odds: Decimal Odds -1

Learn more about the Hong Kong odds format.

5. Indonesian Odds

Indonesian odds are like US odds — except instead of being expressed in terms of $100, it’s in terms of $1. So whenever you see a negative value, it shows how big the wager is needed for a profit of $1. And whenever you see a positive value, it shows the profit from a wager of $1.

Personally I prefer this format to US odds, as it’s more useful to calculate profit in terms of $1 units rather than $100.

Profit Calculation (Favourites)

Formula: Stake x (-1 / Odds)

Examples

• -2.0 = (-1/-2) = 0.5. Therefore, $0.5 profit on $1 staked.
• -1.25 = (-1/-1.25) = 0.8. Therefore, $80 profit on $100 staked.
• -1.5 = (-1/-1.5) = 2/3. Therefore, $40 profit on $60 staked.

Profit Calculation (Underdogs)

Formula: Stake x Odds

Examples

• 4.0 = $400 profit on $100 staked.
• 3.0 = $300 profit on $100 staked.
• 5.0 = $250 profit on $50 staked.

Convert to Decimal Odds (Favourites)

Formula: -1 / (Odds + 1)

Examples

• -5.0 = (-1/-5) +1 = 1/5 + 1 = 1.2 decimal odds.
• -4.0 = (-1/-4) + 1 = 1/4 + 1 = 1.25 decimal odds.
• -1 = (-1/-1) + 1 = 1 + 1 = 2.0 decimal odds.

Convert to Decimal Odds (Underdogs)

Formula: Odds + 1

Examples

• 5.0 = 5 +1 = 6.0 decimal odds.
• 4.0 = 4 + 1 = 5.0 decimal odds.
• 2.0 = 2 + 1 = 3.0 decimal odds.

To convert Decimal odds of 2.00 or greater to Indonesian odds: (Decimal Odds – 1)

To convert Decimal odds of less than 2.00 to Indonesian odds: (-1)/(Decimal Odds -1)

Learn more about the Indonesian odds format.

6. Malaysian Odds

Malaysian odds are the opposite of the US and Indonesian formats. This time the negative (-) and positive (+) odds are switched over. Negative odds represent the underdog, while Positive odds represent the favourite. All other calculations remain the same.

Profit Calculation (Favourites)

Formula: Stake x (-1 / Odds)?

Examples

• -2.0 = (-1/-2) = 0.5. Therefore, $0.5 profit on $1 staked.
• -1.25 = (-1/-1.25) = 0.8. Therefore, $80 profit on $100 staked.
• -1.5 = (-1/-1.5) = 2/3. Therefore, $40 profit on $60 staked.

Profit Calculation (Underdogs)

Formula: Stake x Odds

Examples

• 5.0 = $500 from on $100 staked.
• 4.0 = $400 profit on $100 staked.
• 1.0 = $50 profit on $50 staked.

Convert to Decimal Odds (Positive)

Formula: Odds + 1

Examples

• 5.0 = 6.0 decimal odds.
• 4.0 = 5.0 decimal odds.
• 1.0 ?= 2.0 decimal odds.

Convert to Decimal Odds (Negative)

Formula: -1 / (Odds +1)

Examples

• -5.0 = -1/-5 + 1 ?= 1.2 decimal odds.
• -4.0 = -1/-4 + 1 = 1.25 decimal odds.
• -0.6 = -1/-0.6 + 1 = 2.67 decimal odds.

To convert Decimal odds of 2.00 or less to Malay odds: (Decimal Odds – 1)

To convert Decimal odds of greater than 2.00 to Malay odds: -1 / (Decimal Odds -1)

Learn more about the Malaysian odds format.

7. The Probability (Implied Odds)

Probabilities aren’t used by Bookmakers or the betting exchanges — but if you want to earn from sports betting it’s vital to know how to translate odds into the implied chance (%). The implied chance? tells us the % chance, according the odds on offer, of an event happening.

Once you convert your odds, from whatever format you use, into decimal odds then you can very quickly convert them into a implied % value.

Convert From Decimal Odds

Formula: 1 / Decimal Odds

Examples

• 5.0 = (1/5) = 0.2 = 20% chance
• 2.0 = (1/2) = 0.5 = 50 % chance
• 1.5 = (1/1.5) = 2/3 = 66.67% chance

Convert To Decimal Odds

Formula: 100 / Chance %

Examples

• 40% chance = 100/40 = 2.5 decimal odds
• 90% chance = 100/90 = 1.11 decimal odds
• 25% chance = 100/25 = 4.0 decimal odds

Learn more about the Implied Probability.

Final Words of Advice

While using an online odds conversion calculator is the easiest way to find equivalent odds, understanding the formulas behind the conversions is essential if you want to build your own betting strategy using Excel or similar tools. Hopefully this article will assist you in doing that.

If you have a choice of any odds format, I recommend using decimal “European” odds due to their simplicity and intuitiveness. Unlike some other formats, decimal odds have no layers to decrypt. The higher the number, the less likely the event is to happen, and the bigger the potential payout will be.

There is one other odds format that you might wish to learn about: Spread Betting odds. The payouts work much differently to the fixed odds formats shown above, so I’ve published a separate article about it here: Spread Betting Odds Explained.

The post Every Sports Betting Odds Format Explained With Examples appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Some views on sports betting are understandable while others are amusing, misguided, and just plain wrong. Let’s set the record straight.

1. The Bookmaker Always Gets It Right

Bookmakers don’t know the outcome of an event before it happens, nor do they always “get it right” with their odds. Those are myths.

It’s fair to say that bookmakers are experts in offering odds at lower-than-fair prices. That’s how they capture a “fee” for the service they provide.

But price inaccuracies still constantly occur at bookmakers, which offers value to customers. It’s just a case of spotting them.

Learn more:?How Do Bookmakers Earn? How Big Is Their Edge?

2. You Need To Be A Stats Genius To Earn From Betting

Finding an edge in sports betting involves making calculations and, in particular, using probabilities to your advantage. There’s no way of getting around that.

However, there are profitable ways to bet that require little or no calculations from the bettor. For instance, following the selections from a value bet finder or proven tipster.

So, no, you do not necessarily need to be a “stats guru” to become a profitable sports bettor.

3. There’s No Such Thing As Risk Free Betting

Believe it or not, risk-free sports betting opportunities do exist and many people profit from them.

The two risk-free techniques are:

1. Matched Betting. This involves converting bookmaker promotions and free bets into a profit. I’ve written a detailed beginner’s guide to matched betting which recommends services that help subscribers to earn a monthly income using this technique.
2. Arbitrage Betting. This follows a similar process to matched betting, but involves earning profits from the differences in odds at bookmakers and betting exchanges. Learn more from my arbitrage betting guide, or check out my list of recommended arb finders.

4. It’s Impossible to Earn From Betting

The majority of sports bettors lose in the long-run. So for the most part it’s, as we say, a “mug’s game”. But sports betting professionals exist and certainly do make a living from it. Most just tend to keep quiet about their occupation — perhaps in fear of giving away their secrets.

Like all other ventures, sports betting takes hard work. It’s difficult to find an advantage over the markets as the competition for odds is fierce, and bookmakers do their utmost to limit profitable bettors. So producing a consistent ROI doesn’t come easy.

You can learn more on how professionals succeed from my article: How To Make Money From Sports Betting

5. I’ll Win Because I Know What The Result Will Be

Unless a game is fixed, there’s no such thing as a guaranteed or “dead certain” result in sport. Anything can happen.

Some tipsters claim to have “inside information” about upcoming events. Even if they did, then it’s highly unlikely they would let anyone know about it so openly — if only to avoid a brush with the law. You’ve also got to wonder: would they really want to sell that knowledge?

A lot of tipsters claim to offer specialist knowledge and foresight — but the majority of them do not deliver on their promises. So it’s vitally important to use a reputable site to find a reliable tipster and to always maintain realistic expectations.

Learn more: Can Tipsters Be Trusted?

6. There’s No Point Betting At High Odds. It Doesn’t Ever Win

It’s obviously not true that high odds (long-shots) never win.

Odds reflect the probability — an approximation of the chance — of an event occurring. Inevitably an unusual event (i.e. an “upset”) will occur, but that’s life for you.

It’s?true to say is that there’s “increasingly more risk“ as you bet on higher odds. Betting on high odds certainly requires more risk tolerance; you can go a long while without winning!

Importantly, you’re not necessarily making a good bet just because an outcome is more likely to strike a win. Value can occur in both short and long prices.

7. I Haven’t Won In A While. I’m Due One Now

Just because you haven’t won lately doesn’t mean you’re due a win.

You can hit winning and losing streaks, but ultimately every new bet you place will be independent from previous ones (in most cases, anyway). This means that your previous results will not influence your upcoming results. The losing streak may continue.

Some gamblers take the supersticous approach of raising their stakes or betting at higher odds when they feel that a win is ‘due’. That’s a dangerous way to go.

Don’t count on a win to offset losses, and always maintain stakes that you’re prepared to lose.

8. Odds Don’t Matter. Just Pick More Winners

This line of thinking is one of the main reasons why bookmakers continue to thrive. You can’t just “pick more winners” and disregard the value of the odds. The odds matter more than anything else.

Think of it this way: if you wanted to pick more winners you could back Real Madrid to win every league match. Right?

Of course, you’ll win very frequently by backing Madrid every game. But that still doesn’t generate a profit long-term — because the odds stand in the way. The prices are too low.

It’s not about how often you win, it’s about how much you are paid out when you do.

Finding value is paramount to sports betting success. So my advice to any beginner is to always focus on finding a good price before anything else. Over time your advantage or disadvantage over the bookmaker will eventually reveal itself in your results.

9. Strategies Don’t Work. Betting Is Always Down To Luck

Nobody can deny that chance plays its part in sporting results. Anything can happen. But long-term success in sports betting is not dictated by chance; it’s dictated by the selections you make.

Some sporting outcomes stand a much better chance than others. These differences are represented in the betting odds available. Public opinion, both professional and recreational, shapes these odds, making them increasingly accurate as the event approaches. This means that the markets are”tight” — making it near-impossible to earn a profit by randomly making selections.

And since you cannot simply rely on luck to make a profit from sports betting, you need a smart way to select bets with odds in your favour. In other words, you need a strategy.

10. Bookies Have Better Odds Than Betting Exchanges

It’s alarming how many times I’ve heard this or seen it written online.

Bookmakers rarely have better odds than the betting exchanges. In fact they do everything they can to keep their odds lower to avoid leaving themselves open to arbitrage betting.

I think this false belief stems from misinformation provided by gambling affiliates. It’s not uncommon to read that a specific bookmaker is offering the “best odds” for an event — when in fact you can head straight over to the Betfair exchange and instantly find?better value 99%+ of the time.

Furthermore, the betting exchange odds aren’t always shown on popular odds comparison sites; probably because it only serves to discredit the bookies those sites are partnered with. The omission leaves many bettors misinformed.

However, despite their lower odds, I should point out that there are several advantages that bookies offer over the betting exchanges.

Sports betting sites and affiliates are under increasing pressure to provide accurate information about gambling and the risks involved. In the future we can expect less misinformation. But for now I hope this article has helped to debunk some of the most common sports betting myths.

The post 10 Biggest Sports Betting Myths | Top Lies & Misconceptions appeared first on Punter2Pro.

What is Probability?

Probability is a measure of how likely something is to happen. It’s expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 means the event won’t happen and 1 means it definitely will.

To better grasp this, let’s consider a simple example: a coin toss. When you flip a fair coin, there are two possible outcomes: heads or tails. Each outcome is equally likely, so the probability of getting heads is 0.5 (or 50%), and the probability of getting tails is also 0.5 (or 50%). This means that in the long run, you would expect to get heads half the time and tails the other half, assuming the coin is fair and the tosses are random.

Probability can be expressed in different formats:

• Decimal Form: This is the most direct expression of probability. For instance, a probability of 0.75 means there’s a 75% chance of the event happening.
• Percentage Form: To convert a decimal probability to a percentage, simply multiply by 100. So, a probability of 0.75 translates to a 75% chance of occurrence.
• Odds Form: Odds are another way to express probability, often used in betting. For example, odds of 3/1 (read as “three to one”) imply that for every three times the event is expected to happen, it will not happen once. To convert this to a probability, divide the number of unfavourable outcomes by the total number of outcomes. Here, 1 divided by (3+1) equals 0.25, or a 25% chance of winning.

Understanding probability helps in evaluating the chances of various outcomes and making sensible betting decisions.

How Do Bookmakers Calculate Probabilities?

Bookmakers are responsible for setting the odds on various sports events, and to do so, they need to estimate the probability of different outcomes. While odds might seem simple on the surface, they are the result of a sophisticated process which includes some or all of the following factors:

1. Historical Data

The foundation of odds calculation begins with historical data. Bookmakers can examine past performances to estimate the likelihood of future outcomes.

For instance, if a football team has won 60% of its matches over several seasons, this historical win rate offers a basic starting point for assessing their chances in an upcoming game. Similarly, historical head-to-head records between teams provide insights into their relative strengths.

While historical data is crucial for forming an initial probability, is just one part of the equation.

2. Current Factors

Alongside historical data, bookmakers consider current factors that may impact an event, such as:

• Injuries: the absence of a key player can dramatically affect a team’s chances.
• Recent form: teams or players on a winning streak are often more likely to continue their good performance, while those struggling might see their odds lengthen.
• Weather conditions: Rain or wind can influence game dynamics, such as making a football pitch slippery or affecting the trajectory of a tennis ball.
• Venue: teams usually perform better at home due to familiar conditions and supportive fans.

These current factors help refine the initial estimates and adjust the odds accordingly.

3. Expert Insights

In addition to data and current conditions, bookmakers could also rely on expert insights to fine-tune their odds.

Experts, who may include former athletes, analysts, or insiders, provide valuable information that might not be fully captured by raw data. They offer perspectives on team morale, which can influence performance, and assess tactical adjustments that might change how a game unfolds.

Expert opinions can also include insider knowledge, such as unreported injuries or team dynamics, which can further adjust the odds.

4. Market Consensus

Bookmakers also monitor market consensus, especially through betting exchanges like Betfair. On these platforms, bettors can place and lay bets, creating a real-time reflection of public sentiment.

The majority of bookmakers monitor these betting exchanges closely to ensure that their odds remain competitive and balanced. If there’s a strong movement on a betting exchange, bookmakers may adjust their own odds to match the market sentiment and reduce their exposure to risk.

5. Supply & Demand

The concept of supply and demand plays a critical role in how bookmakers set and adjust odds. When a significant number of bets are placed on a specific outcome, bookmakers adjust the odds to reflect this demand. By shortening the odds on the popular side and lengthening those on less favoured outcomes, bookmakers manage their risk and maintain balance.

This adjustment not only helps in risk management but also provides insight into where bettors perceive value, guiding bookmakers in refining their odds to ensure they remain profitable.

This multi-faceted approach ensures that odds are not only accurate but also aligned with current betting activity, helping bookmakers balance risk and profitability. Understanding this process can enable bettors to improve their betting strategies.

Using Bookmaker Probability Calculations to Find An Edge

Understanding how bookmakers set odds offers bettors an advantage. Here’s how you can apply this understanding to sharpen your betting strategy:

Seek Value in the Data

Bookmakers use historical performance and current conditions to set odds. To find value, compare a team or player’s past performance with the odds offered. For instance, if a football team has consistently performed well under specific conditions, but the odds do not reflect this, it may indicate an undervalued opportunity.

Additionally, consider recent factors like injuries, team form, and the synergy (or lack thereof) between specific players. If the odds have not adjusted to these recent developments, there might be an edge. For example, if a key player is injured and the odds haven’t shifted accordingly, this could affect the team’s performance and create a betting opportunity.

Acknowledge Public Sentiment

Betting exchanges and market trends reveal where most bettors are placing their money. Significant changes in betting volumes often highlight where the “smart money” is going. By observing these trends, you can identify shifts in public sentiment and adjust your betting strategy accordingly.

Expert opinions can also provide context that raw data might miss. For example, a sports expert or tipster might share insights about a team’s internal dynamics or strategic adjustments. Combining these expert insights with your own analysis helps you spot where the odds might be misaligned with reality, offering potential value.

Exploit Odds Adjustments

Bookmakers adjust odds to manage risk and balance their books in response to betting volumes and market movements. By tracking these adjustments, you can find opportunities where the odds might have been set too high or too low.

For instance, if a large number of bets are placed on one outcome, the bookmaker might lower the odds for that outcome to balance the books. Conversely, if the odds on less popular outcomes increase, it may indicate that these outcomes are undervalued. This knowledge helps you identify bets where the probability of an outcome might be underestimated.

Consider Psychological Factors

Psychological factors and team dynamics can greatly impact sports outcomes but may not always be reflected in the odds. Elements like team morale, pressure situations, or internal conflicts can influence performance in ways that traditional data might not capture.

For example, a team under significant pressure might perform worse than expected, even if their statistical data suggests otherwise. By considering these psychological and behavioural factors, you can gain a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes and identify betting opportunities that might not be immediately apparent.

Explore Diverse Betting Strategies

Expand your betting approach by delving into a variety of betting types and strategies. Traditional match outcome bets are just the beginning; exploring alternative bets can provide new opportunities and value. Here’s how:

• Asian Handicap Bets: These bets level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams by giving one team a virtual head start. This can reduce the risk of a draw and offer better value compared to traditional win/lose bets.
• Over/Under Bets: Instead of betting on a specific outcome, you can bet on the total number of goals, points, or other metrics in a game. For example, you might bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will be over or under a certain number. This can be advantageous when you expect a high or low-scoring game but are unsure of the exact outcome.
• Lay Bets: Available on betting exchanges, lay betting allows you to bet against an outcome. This can be useful for hedging your bets or taking advantage of market inefficiencies. For instance, if you believe a team will not win, you can lay a bet against them and potentially profit if they lose or draw.
• Each Way Betting: Common in horse racing, each-way bets allow you to place two bets: one for the horse to win and one for it to place (finish in a specified top position). This can be a safer option when betting on a horse with a good chance of placing but not necessarily winning.
• In-Play Betting: This allows you to place bets during the event itself, adjusting your strategy based on how the game unfolds. In-play betting can offer opportunities to exploit real-time developments, such as a team’s momentum or a key player’s performance.
• Niche Bets: These are bets on specific events or occurrences within a game, such as the first player to score or the number of corner kicks. Niche bets can offer value if you have detailed knowledge about specific aspects of the game.

Additionally, you could also explore ways to profit from matched betting, a strategy that uses betting promotions and odds differences to generate a return by covering all possible outcomes of an event.

By integrating these diverse strategies and embracing a range of betting types, you’ll be well-positioned to stay ahead of the pack.

The post Evaluating The Probability Of Events: A Basic Guide for Bettors appeared first on Punter2Pro.

From betting calculators that speed up the maths, to advanced software offering data-driven insights, there’s a tool for every aspect of sports betting. Regardless of your experience level, these tools can enhance your approach to betting. Best of all, most of them are free.

In this article, I’ll cover five essential tools every sports bettor should use to boost their chances of success.

Where to Find Free Betting Tools

If you’re looking for free betting tools, BettingTools is an excellent place to start. They provide a growing range of resources designed to improve your success rate and deepen your understanding of betting. From matched betting spreadsheets to Asian handicap tables, their tools offer solutions to various sports betting challenges.

For example, matched betting spreadsheets help you organise and manage your bets, ensuring you don’t miss out on any potential profits from promotional offers. Asian handicap tables simplify complex betting scenarios, allowing you to fully understand the nuances of this popular (and sometimes confusing) bet type.

So, which tools are most crucial for sports bettors? How do these tools enhance your betting experience?

1. Bet Calculator

A bet calculator is one of the most commonly used free betting tools. Its primary function is to help you determine how much you could win if your bet is successful. Simply enter your stake and the odds, and the calculator will quickly show you your potential return.

In addition to calculating potential winnings, bet calculators often feature the functionality to convert odds between different formats—fractional, decimal, and American. For example, if you’re used to fractional odds but encounter decimal odds on another betting site, you can use the calculator to switch formats seamlessly. This feature is particularly useful for comparing odds.

Bet calculators are also invaluable for understanding the payouts of more complex bet types, such as Each Way or Full Cover racing bets. Their practicality and ease of use make them a staple in any bettor’s toolkit.

2. Odds Comparer

Many third-party sites offer an odds comparison tool, sometimes known as an ‘odds comparer’. This tool helps you compare odds for a specific bet—such as Arsenal to win the Premier League—across multiple betting sites. By using an odds comparer, you can quickly identify which sportsbook offers the best odds for your bet.

Often, you’ll find that one site offers significantly better odds than others. For instance, you might discover that Bet365 offers Arsenal at 3/1, while Sky Bet provides the same bet at 4/1. Clearly, betting with Sky Bet in this scenario would yield a higher potential profit.

Using an odds comparer before placing any substantial bet is highly recommended, as this ensures you’re always maximising your return. Shopping around for better odds can significantly impact your overall betting results.

3. Bet Tracking Software

Bet tracking software is essential for serious sports bettors. It allows you to log and analyse every bet you place, providing an overview of your betting activity. By maintaining detailed records, you can track your bets, evaluate your performance, and uncover patterns or trends in your betting strategy.

Bet trackers help you assess which types of bets yield the best results and where you might need to adjust your approach. With features for categorising bets by type, sport, or bookmaker, you can gain clear insights into your betting outcomes and completely remove the guesswork.

Popular bet trackers include BettingGS, Bet Diary, and Stake Toys — though a well-organised spreadsheet can also be highly effective.

4. News, Analytics & Data

To excel in sports betting, leveraging news, analytics, and data is crucial. This broad category encompasses various formats and tools:

• News Sources: Staying updated with real-time news from media outlets helps you track injuries, team changes, and other developments that can impact game outcomes and odds. Timely information ensures you make well-informed decisions.
• Stats/Analytics Sites: These platforms offer analytical tools to combine current news with historical data. Many free platforms provide features like statistical comparisons and head-to-head data, which help you understand patterns and trends affecting betting odds.
• Tipster Proofing Sites: These sites evaluate and verify the performance of betting tipsters. Reviewing tipster credibility and success rates helps you select reliable sources for betting advice, potentially improving the quality of your betting selections.
• Betting Forums and Communities: Engaging with online betting forums and communities allows you to exchange insights, strategies, and experiences with other bettors. This can provide new perspectives to refine your betting approach.

While these resources can help to improve your approach, they do not guarantee success; they are often part of a broader strategy that includes careful analysis and judgment.

5. Vig/Overround Calculator

Finally, the Vig calculator, or overround calculator in Europe, is essential for understanding the bookmaker’s margin.

The margin, known as the “Vig” (short for “Vigorish”) in the US and the “overround” in Europe, is factored into the odds to ensure the bookmaker makes a profit while balancing the stakes on all outcomes. This margin impacts the actual value of your bets.

For example, if you’re betting on the “Full-Time Result” market for the Champions League match between Manchester United and Real Madrid, with odds of 5.0 for Manchester United, 4.33 for a draw, and 1.44 for Real Madrid, the average Vigorish across betting sites is 12.53%. This represents the difference between the offered prices and the fair odds, indicating that some prices may represent poor value.

Using a Vig calculator helps you identify situations where the bookmaker’s edge is high or minimal, allowing you to assess whether the odds offer good value.

Summary: Maximise Your Betting Success with Essential Tools

Navigating sports betting can be overwhelming, but fortunately, the internet offers a wide range of online sports betting tools to simplify the process—many of which are free. From betting calculators and odds comparers to bet tracking software and analytics, these resources help you make smarter decisions.

Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned bettor, leveraging these tools is a smart way to boost your sports betting potential.

The post 5 Essential Tools Every Sports Bettor Should Be Using appeared first on Punter2Pro.

When a bettor opts for the SP, they agree beforehand to accept whatever price the runner goes off at.

Here’s everything you need to know about the starting price.

What Is The Starting Price (SP)?

The starting price (SP) or “start price” represents the final odds for participants in a race, established just before the race kicks off. The SP becomes the odds for bettors who opted to place bets at that rate, leading to payouts being calculated accordingly.

It’s important to note that betting odds often fluctuate on the build up to a race, influenced by various factors such as the volume and size of bets, as well as any late-breaking information affecting the perceived chances of runners. Consequently, SPs may differ among various bookmakers and betting exchanges.

The Betfair Starting Price (BSP) is generally considered to be an accurate reflection of the true market value of a selection at the start of a race. This is because the BSP is determined by the collective wisdom of the Betfair exchange users, who are actively backing and laying bets based on their own assessments of a runner’s chances.

How Is The Starting Price (SP) Set?

The method by which SPs are set for each runner varies in different countries.

Traditionally in the UK SP’s have been determined by a panel of officials at the racecourse, based on the average odds quoted by on-course fixed-odds bookmakers. When there are no on-course bookmakers at the track an official body (The Starting Price Regulatory Commission) will calculate the SP using a sample list of online bookmakers.

Calculating this SP using this traditional method does not directly account for volumes of bets placed on the selection off-course — i.e. in betting shops and online — and has sparked a lot of debate across the industry as to whether the prices are really representative for each horse’s chance of winning.

With with race attendance numbers dwindling, and online betting accounting for the majority of stakes place on racing, the Starting Price now closely follows the odds on the betting exchange. The Starting Prices on the Betfair exchange — known as the BSP — are determined by the market, which is made up of bettors wanting to either to Back or Lay an outcome. Due to the fact there is no margin for profit built into the prices, you are more likely to find a better, and more accurate, representation of the Starting Price on the exchange than at the bookies.

Significance Of The Starting Price

The Starting Price signifies a pivotal moment just before the race commences: it’s where the market solidifies, and the highest volume of bets is matched on the betting exchanges before going in-play. This moment holds significance because the odds at this moment encapsulate the collective sentiments of both retail and professional bettors?leading up to the race.

As the race approaches, informed and seasoned bettors tend to enter the betting exchanges in the final 30 minutes, injecting their insights and refining the odds. Consequently, the market experiences heightened activity, becoming more competitive and tightly knit. This tightening of spreads sees Back and Lay odds aligning closely with each other, reflecting a market that is increasingly accurate in assessing probabilities for each runner’s chances of winning.

Given this, finding value from the SP is challenging, as the public consensus largely eliminates any discrepancies in the odds. In general, the prevailing sentiment converges towards a consensus, leaving little room for exploiting potential “value” prices that might have existed earlier. This is precisely why many professional bettors will avoid taking the Starting Price within their strategies.

Beating The Starting Price

Throughout the day leading up to a race, the odds undergo significant fluctuations. These changes occur both early and late on, before ultimately stabilising at values that are considered to be “fair”. Therefore, comparing our price to the SP provides insight into the quality of the value in our bet.

In general:

• If the Starting Price is higher than our price, it indicates a failure to find a value bet (though Best Odds Guaranteed can mitigate this setback).
• If the Starting Price is lower than our price, it signifies a value bet—a phenomenon known as “Beating the SP” or “Beating the Closing Line“.

Thus, the SP serves as a useful tool for evaluating the efficacy of our selection criteria, betting systems, or tipsters in identifying value. Understanding and leveraging these insights can greatly impact sports betting profitability.

Best Odds Guaranteed

Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) is as a popular promotion offers by many bookmakers, enhancing the profitability of bets placed at odds lower than the SP.

Here’s how it works:

If you secure a price on a horse and the Starting Price (SP) surpasses it, the BOG bookmaker will honour the larger odds. For instance:

• If you take a price of 4/1 and the selection wins with an SP of 5/1, you’ll be paid out at 5/1
• If you take a price of 4/1 and the selection wins with an SP of 3/1, you’ll be paid out at 4/1

BOG ensures that bettors can potentially save more money than they would otherwise. Notably, this perk is not offered by betting exchanges, contributing to the loyalty of many racing bettors to bookmakers despite their lower odds.

For further insights into the advantages of bookmakers over exchanges, delve into: Why Use Bookmakers Instead of The Exchange?

The post What Is The Starting Price In Betting? What Does SP Mean? appeared first on Punter2Pro.

1. Oddschecker

OddsChecker is the #1 odds comparison site and has been helping bettors to improve their odds since 1999.

The OddsChecker site enables users to select an event/market and check the latest prices available from a list of popular bookmakers and betting exchanges. Clicking a price directs the user to the selected betting site where they can place the bet.

Overall the site is modern, very easy to use and provides live odds on a wide range of sports & markets.

Pros

• Great range of sports and markets.
• Ideal for checking prices between popular (and reputable) sportsbooks and exchanges.
• Neat, modern interface.
• Historical data, such as H2H for football, integrated into upcoming games.

Cons

• Defaults to fractional odds. Decimals would be preferable.
• Prioritises bookmaker odds even though the betting exchange odds are consistently better. This undermines the transparency of the site.
• Many smaller, less popular bookmakers are not featured on the site.
• Cluttered with bookmaker ads/banners. Clearly shows bias towards affiliated brands.

2. BetMonitor

BetMonitor is a less-known odds comparison site that truly aims to give bettors an edge.

The list of bookmakers on BetMonitor is extensive, with a great mix of popular brands as well as little-known bookies. Prices are listed in order of the payout %, from top to bottom, making it crystal-clear where you should be betting.

Aside from odds comparisons, BetMonitor features a “dropping odds” section for monitoring the historical journey of specific prices, as well as a sure bets section for value bets. These features are free and serve as a taster for what types of tools you’ll get as a premium user.

Pros

• Wide range of sports and markets.
• Excellent range of sportsbooks, big and small.
• Uncluttered website, with a heavy focus on finding value rather than casual/recreational gambling.
• Features charts that plot the movement of odds on the lead up to an event.

Cons

• No statistics or historical data integrated into upcoming games.
• Lacks a few popular betting sites with great odds, such as Matchbook.
• Many of the featured bookmakers are not available from all regions.
• Unlikely to stay online, as many bookmakers may not support the site and could attempt to block their odds being displayed.

3. OddsPortal

OddsPortal is another major odds comparison site. It features a wide range of sports and markets, dropping odds, sure bets and a community-based tipster section.

Furthermore OddsPortal enables users to sort the odds for each outcome by the highest value, and to view historical prices.

The interface is slightly dated, but OddsPortal is still the go-to odds comparison site for EU bookmakers.

Pros

• Wide range of sports and markets.
• Excellent range of sportsbooks, particularly for EU-based bettors
• No-nonsense website, with a heavy focus on finding the highest price.
• Features a tipster section, enabling users to post their own bets and build a profile of results.

Cons

• Defaults to fractional odds. Decimal odds would be preferable.
• The site looks dated compared to its competitors. It could do with an update.
• Cluttered with bookmaker ads/banners. Clearly shows bias towards affiliated brands.
• Targets at EU customers, so some of the featured bookmakers are not available from all regions.

4. Oddspedia

Oddspedia is modern sports odds comparison site featuring a selection of reputable sports betting sites. It also provides live scores, statistics, sports news, and other sports betting content.

Visitors to Oddspedia can bring up graphs of how specific odds have changed over time, which is a neat touch.

The site is mainly football focused, but includes several other popular sports.

Pros

• Uncluttered, user friendly interface.
• Integrates stats and betting odds.
• Easy to switch between odds and favourite events.
• Particularly appealing for football fans seeking a one-stop-shop for betting.

Cons

• Lacks sports compared to other odds comparison sites.
• Betting exchanges are omitted, which somewhat devalues the site.
• Favours affiliated bookmakers, and gives extra exposure to them.
• Lacks some configurability (e.g. the ability to order the odds by their value).

5. OddsExplorer

OddsExplorer is a comparison site designed to help users around the world to find the best odds from a selection of the most trusted sites.?

The site includes a variety of betting calculators, sure bets, basic statistics, and short match previews.

Pros

• Uncluttered, user friendly interface.
• Includes some less-known bookmakers.
• Encourages value betting.
• Enables users to sort outcomes by the best odds available.

Cons

• Lacks sports compared to other odds comparison sites.
• US focused, meaning UK/EU bettors may not be able to sign up to all of the recommended sites.
• Betting exchanges are omitted, which devalues the site.

Worthy Mentions

While the above list of the top 5 odds comparison sites will be more than enough to keep you going, some other great options almost made the list.

You might want to check out:

• OddsMagnet
• EasyOdds
• Oddssafari
• BettingOdds

Limitations Of Odds Comparison Sites

Counterintuitively, odds comparison sites won’t necessarily show you the best odds available. That’s because they’re limited by what bookmakers they actually show on their site. So for instance, an odds comparison site that doesn’t include betting exchanges (which has the best odds the vast majority of the time) wouldn’t be giving you the best prices. So be aware of that.

Another limitation is that the odds aren’t always up to date. Odds change quickly, so it’s not unusual to find a price displaying on an odds comparison site that’s already been slashed — which isn’t ideal.

Lastly you have to be very aware that the odds and bookies that are given the most exposure on odds comparison sites often aren’t the ones with the best odds. A lot of the recommendations they provide are made because those sites offer the highest incentives for the extra exposure.

Are Odds Comparison Sites Worth Using?

If you’re someone that often takes the most convenient odds without shopping around for better, then using an odds comparison site before is certainly going to improve your approach.

However, the fact remains: you could save the hassle of shopping around for the best odds by using a betting exchange, or a sharp bookmaker like Pinnacle (if it’s available in your region), in the first place. These sites consistently provide industry-leading odds and cover most popular sports and markets. It could be all you need.

Nonetheless there are many valid reason why you might opt to use a bookmaker. If you do prefer bookies over exchanges, it’s still advantageous to be aware of a few dependable odds comparison sites to enhance the odds you select.

The post Best Odds Comparison Sites | Find The Top Prices In 2024 appeared first on Punter2Pro.

Let’s delve into the art of unconventional wagering.

The Basics of Sports Betting

Before you can effectively wager against the grain, it’s essential to understand the basics of sports betting. Traditional sportsbooks, such as the FanDuel Sportsbook, offer odds for various events. These odds are designed to balance the amount of money bet on each side of an outcome, ensuring the bookmaker profits regardless of the outcome.

Odds represent the bookmaker’s assessment of an event’s likelihood. The odds indicate not only the potential profit but also the implied probability of a specific outcome. Learning to interpret odds correctly is crucial for sports betting success, as it enables you to spot opportunities where the bookmaker’s perception might differ from your own analysis.

Contrary to popular belief, the bookmakers pricing methods are not infallible. That’s precisely why professional bettors are able to find profitable opportunities — often by studying team statistics, player performance, injury reports, and other relevant data — to make informed bets that go against popular consensus.

Learn how bookmaker’s odds work

The Psychology of Conventional Betting

The human tendency to favour popular teams and athletes can lead to predictable betting behaviours and patterns. For instance, many people tend to gravitate toward well-known teams and players who have previously — or recently — enjoyed success. This herd mentality often results in odds that are less favourable for those who follow the crowd.

To succeed in sports betting, it’s important to break free from psychological patterns and make informed, independent-minded decisions based around?value. This approach involves identifying opportunities where the odds offered by the sportsbook are higher than the bettor’s estimated probability of the outcome occurring. Discipline and objectivity is required during this process.

Data and analysis play a crucial role in breaking free from conventional wisdom and focusing on value. Bettors can use historical performance data, statistics, changes within the betting markets and other relevant factors to make informed decisions.

Additionally, exploring different sportsbooks for favourable odds, delving into niche markets, and considering underdogs when supported by research, are essential components of a successful strategy. However, it’s important to note that the odds for less popular outcomes can still fall significantly short of what would make the bet truly valuable.

Therefore, wagering against the grain doesn’t simply mean going against popular opinion; it’s about consistently spotting value where others don’t.

The Benefits of Betting Against the Grain

The main benefits of betting against the grain are as follows:

• Enhanced Odds and Value: When you bet against the popular consensus, you often find more favourable odds. This increased odds potential translates into higher potential payouts if your bet succeeds, which leads to more significant long-term profits.
• Reduced Competition: Popular bets tend to attract a larger number of bettors, creating more competition for potentially limited profits. By betting against the grain, you face less competition, which can improve your bet execution.
• Diversification: Betting against the grain can be part of a diversified betting strategy. By not exclusively relying on popular bets, you can spread your risk across a variety of wagers, thereby increasing potential profitability.
• Staying Informed: To bet against popular sentiment, you need to stay well-informed about the sports, teams, and players you’re betting on. This commitment to research and analysis can enhance your knowledge and understanding of the sports you follow, which can be rewarding in itself.
• Spotting Value Early: Going against the grain often means identifying value in lines before they adjust. This can be especially advantageous for bettors who can spot discrepancies early and capitalise on them before the broader market catches on.

In simple terms, if you’re right when most people are wrong, you stand to gain considerably more.

The Risks of Unconventional Wagering

Like any high-reward strategy, betting against the grain comes with its own set of risks, including:

• Higher Risk: Betting against popular sentiment often means wagering on outcomes that are less likely to occur according to public opinion. While this can lead to higher payouts when successful, it also carries a higher risk of losing your bets.
• Reduced Market Liquidity: Less popular bets can have lower market liquidity, meaning there may be fewer betting options available, and it might be more challenging to place larger bets without significantly impacting the odds.
• Delayed Gratification: Contrarian betting often involves patience, as it may take time to see the results of your strategy. In contrast, betting with the crowd can provide more immediate gratification, which some bettors prefer.
• Limited Information: Betting against the grain sometimes means you have less information or data to support your bets, as popular sentiment often drives the majority of analysis and coverage. This can make it harder to make well-informed decisions.
• Varied Success: Contrarian betting success can vary greatly depending on the sport, market, and the specific circumstances. It may not work equally well in all situations.

Successful contrarian betting requires a deep understanding of the risks involved, a well-defined strategy, discipline, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement. It’s a delicate balance between risk and reward, requiring a different mindset and a well-thought-out strategy.

Advice for Betting Boldly

If you’re considering an audacious approach to sports betting, here are a few basic tips:

• Research is Key: Always do your due diligence. It’s essential to base your bets on solid research rather than mere contrarianism.
• Limit Your Exposure: Never put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your bets, and be cautious with the amount you’re wagering.
• Cut Through Media Noise: sports news channels, articles, or social media chatter, plays a pivotal role in shaping the thoughts of the masses. These mediums often amplify popular opinions, leading to skewed perceptions and, subsequently, betting patterns. A discerning contrarian bettor will always be on the lookout for such biases.
• Look for Value: Look for situations where you believe the odds offered by the sportsbook don’t accurately reflect the true probability of an outcome. These are potential value bets, and they are essential for contrarian betting success.
• Track Line Movements: Monitor how betting lines move after they are initially posted. Sudden shifts can indicate sharp bettors or influential factors that could affect the outcome. Understanding line movements can help you make informed decisions.
• Learn from Past Bets: Keep a detailed record of your bets and outcomes. Analyse both successful and unsuccessful bets to identify patterns and refine your strategy.
• Lean on Technology: From advanced analytics platforms to predictive algorithms, there’s no shortage of technological aids for those looking to go against the grain. By leveraging these tools, one can find patterns, insights, and opportunities that might be invisible to the naked eye.
• Be Patient: Betting against the grain may not yield immediate results. Maintain a long-term perspective as success in contrarian betting often comes over time, not in a single bet.

As with all forms of betting, it’s essential to manage your expectations and be prepared for both wins and losses along the way.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the majority of bettors play it safe, adhering to established strategies and expert advice, there also exists a niche of gamblers who find success by swimming upstream.

Betting against the grain is not for the faint-hearted. It demands deep knowledge, sharp analyses, and a risk appetite. Yet, for those who master this art, the rewards can be unparalleled. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or a newbie, remember that sometimes, to win long term, you have to think differently to the crowd.

The post Betting Bold: The Art of Wagering Against The Grain appeared first on Punter2Pro.

1. Match Winner = Moneyline

In this market, you place a bet on the outcome of an event by selecting a winner. In Europe this is known as the “Win” market and is presented as decimal odds (e.g. 2.50), while in the US it is shown as a combination of US odds (e.g. Team A +150, Team B +180, Draw +200) and referred to as the “Moneyline” market. The same name applies to other types of Win market such as “Halftime Result”, which is referred to as “Halftime Moneyline” in the United States.

Learn how US Odds work in the Moneyline market.

2. Outright Winner = Futures

In this market, you place a bet on which team or player will win a tournament or league. For example, a bettor can place an outright winner bet on the team they believe will win a championship before the tournament begins. In the US, this type of market is referred to a “Future”, as the result will not be determined until a significant amount of time, and events, have passed.

3. Handicap = Point Spread

In this market, a theoretical handicap is applied to one of the teams to level the playing field, and you place a bet on the outcome after the handicap is taken into account. In the US, this market is known as the “point spread”, or simply “spread”, and is a highly popular betting format in the region.

Learn about the different types of Handicap bets.

4. Over/Under = Totals

In this market, you place a bet on whether the total number of goals, points, or other relevant statistics in a match will be over or under a certain number. In the US, this is commonly known as a “Totals” market.

Learn about Over/Under bets.

5. Accumulator = Parlay

This type of bet allows bettors to combine multiple selections into a single bet. Each selection must win for the bet to be successful and the potential payout increases with each additional selection added to the accumulator. Acca bets are popular in many European countries, particularly for soccer matches, and are known in the USA as “Parlay” bets.

Learn about Accumulator bets.

6. Tote = Parimutuel

This type of betting system pools together all stakes on a particular event and the payout odds are determined by the total amount of bets on each outcome. This means that the odds for each possible outcome are not fixed in advance, but instead, they fluctuate based on the amount of money wagered on each option. The total amount of money wagered is divided among the winners after a deduction is made for taxes and the cost of running the betting operation. In Europe this is known as Tote betting, and “parimutuel betting” in the USA.

Learn about Tote bets.

Final Points

Most bookmakers only allow customers from their own region to play. However, it is still useful to be familiar with both the European and US equivalent sports betting markets for the following reasons:

• Knowledge of different sports: For example, if you are from the US and take an interest in betting on soccer, understanding the European market can provide valuable insights that can inform your betting decisions. This is especially true if the value is not aligned between European and US sportsbooks.
• Access to a wider range of information: By understanding both markets, you can interpret a wider range of information about different sports, teams, and events. For instance, you might follow helpful websites/blogs/YouTube from both regions, in order to make more informed betting decisions.
• Risk diversification: Understanding the nuances of the betting markets within both regions can help in diversifying into new sports in order to spread your risk and reduce your exposure to any one market.

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In this article, I will discuss the importance of betting margins and provide straightforward advice on how to reduce them in order to maximise winnings.

What Are Betting Margins?

The betting margin refers to the percentage of the total amount wagered that the bookmaker expects to keep as profit. For example, if a bookmaker incorporates a betting margin of 5% and takes ￡100 in bets on an event, they expect to keep ￡5 as profit and pay out ￡95 to the winning bettors.

The higher the betting margins, the lower the odds offered to bettors and the lower their potential winnings. Therefore, finding a sports betting site with low betting margins can significantly increase the chances of making a profit in the long run.

Learn more on how bookmakers make a profit

Betting margins vary depending on the sport and the market. Generally speaking:

• Popular markets such as match odds in Premier League football have lower margins because bookmakers can utilise a vast amount of information to set competitive odds.
• Less popular or “niche” markets typically have higher margins as bookmakers have less data to draw on when determining odds, leading to more cautious pricing.

So how can bettors reduce the margin they bet against??

1. Use An Odds Comparison Site

Using odds comparison sites is an effective way to reduce betting margins, as it allows bettors to compare the odds offered by various bookmakers for a particular event or market. These sites make it effortless to find the sites that offers the best value for your bet.

For instance, if you plan to place a bet on a particular football match, an odds comparison site will display the odds provided by multiple betting sites for that event, revealing those with the most favorable odds.

This approach requires that bettors open accounts with multiple bookmakers.

Discover the best odds comparison sites.

2. Specialise In Specific Sports/Events

To reduce betting margins it can be beneficial to focus on a specific sport, as the quality of odds varies between different betting sites.

For instance, BetVictor and Betway have been found to offer excellent football margins when compared to other popular bookmakers — with BetVictor providing margins as low as 2.9%. Other bookmakers such as Unibet, 888Sport, William Hill, Bet365, and 10Bet also rank competitively for football.

However, it’s important to keep in mind that these same bookmakers may not offer the best margins for every sport. For instance, Bet365 has been known to offer baseball margins as low as 1.7%, while William Hill has excelled in ice hockey with margins at around 3.4%.

Thus, when choosing a bookmaker, it’s crucial to consider the sports that you frequently bet on and to select a site that offers the lowest margins for those specifically.

Discover the most popular sports for betting.

3. Use A Betting Exchange

Utilising a betting exchange is an effortless and effective way for bettors to reduce margins. Unlike traditional bookmakers, betting exchange odds are established by the bettors themselves, with the exchange charging a commission on winning bets only.

Typically, the commission charged by a betting exchange is much lower than the margins set by traditional bookmakers, leading to consistently higher returns on winnings.

Furthermore, using a betting exchange allows bettors to place both back and lay bets. This exclusive feature provides traders with the opportunity to act as both bettors and bookmakers, enabling them to take any position they deem advantageous.

The differences between bookmakers and betting exchanges

4. Claim Promotions & Free Bets

Promotions & free bets can help to reduce betting margins by granting eligible players the opportunity to place bets at improved odds, or with significantly less risk.

For example, a bookmaker may offer a promotion that gives bettors an enhanced price on a particular event or market, meaning that the payout odds are higher than the normal odds.

Similarly, a bookmaker may offer a promotion which allows bettors to place a bet without risking their own money. If the bet wins, the bettor receives the payout, but if the bet loses, the bettor doesn’t lose any of their own funds.

Learn about the different types of sports betting free bets and promotions.

5. Identify Value In The Market

To reduce betting margins, bettors can focus on identifying value. Finding value bets involves identifying and exploiting opportunities where bookmaker odds are higher than the true odds of an event occurring.

Bookmakers set their odds to generate profits, which often involves adjusting them based on a combination of popularity and public perception. As a result, odds may not always reflect the actual probability of an outcome.

To identify value bets, bettors need to gauge the true probability of events and compare it to the bookmaker’s odds. For instance, if a bettor believes that a particular horse has a 50% chance of winning a race, but the bookmaker’s odds suggest only a 40% chance, this could be a value bet.

Focusing on value is a smart, albeit challenging, way for bettors to reduce margins and maximise potential profits.

Learn about the concept of value betting.

Observing margins is crucial for any frequent bettor. The more value you obtiain from your bets, the less you’re likely to lose in the long run.

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